Auckland house prices will rise by almost 30 per cent in the next three years putting the city ahead of every other region in New Zealand, a study predicts.

The Infometrics study forecasts annual price growth of 9.8 per cent next year but 9.2 per cent annually overall between now and 2012.

Auckland’s coming rise would be fueled by the city being the largest in New Zealand, with a rising population and a limited supply of new housing.

Manukau house prices are up almost 5 per cent but Rodney’s are down 13 per cent on a year ago.

Not all areas have picked up yet.

Infometrics’ outlook for Auckland house prices shows prices will be up 9.8 per cent in the year to June 2010.

“Auckland house price growth is forecast to be the fastest in the country at 9.2 per cent per annum,” Infometrics said of the outlook until 2012.

“The persistently low level of residential construction activity in Auckland over the past few years has led to a shortage of property in the region.

“These under-supply issues are set to provide good support for property prices over the next 12 months.

“By 20011/12 housing supply issues are likely to be dominating price trends in the region,” Infometrics said.

“Having experienced a larger decline in sales activity than the national average over 2008, house sales growth in Auckland is now moving in line with the nationwide trend.”

House prices nationally could rise by as much as 24 per cent over the next three years.

Cheap mortgage money and a lack of new housing were combining to push up prices, and the downturn was over, said the study, commissioned by mortgage insurer QBE LMI.

But property author and commentator Kieran Trass said the downturn was far from over.

Prices in some Auckland suburbs were down by about 20 per cent and the slump had some time to run.

But Infometrics s predicted that low interest rates and the housing shortage would push house prices up by almost a quarter by 2012.

Statistics NZ figures show new housing consents plummeted from about 30,000 a year early this decade to 13,000 in the past year.

Infometrics said the median house price had climbed to $339,000 in the June quarter from a low of $330,000 in March.

The number of house sales had already had a strong lift.

Sales were up 41 per cent in the June quarter compared with a year earlier, it said.

“Residential property is also taking a significantly shorter amount of time to sell. Across the country, median time on the market has dropped from 58 days in July 2008 to 41 days in June 2009,” the insurer said.

QBE chief executive Ian Graham said housing affordability had improved throughout the country.

“Demand among buyers has increased,” he said.

“With improved credit conditions and record low interest rates, the motivation for first home buyers and investors to enter the housing market has never been more compelling.”

Steven Glucina, a Ponsonby real estate agent at LJ Hooker, said the market was very active.

“I sold a two-bedroom do-up villa at 61 Pine Street, Balmoral under the hammer on Saturday for $679,000, which was $109,000 over the council valuation.

“The market in this area is red hot at the moment. This is the fourth home that I have sold in the street in the past three months.”

GOING UP SOON

Infometrics’ predictions on Auckland median house prices
* 2009: $440,000
* 2010: $483,200
* 2011: $506,700
* 2012: $553,000

NZ median house prices
* 2009: $339,200
* 2010: $376,200
* 2011: $391,400
* 2012: $419,400

6 May 2009

Source: NZ Herald

An upturn in the Auckland residential property market that started in February continued into April, figures show.

Agency Barfoot & Thompson said the average price for Auckland houses was $502,726 last month, up 2.2 per cent on the March figure.

The 809 Auckland sales in April was up 79 per cent on a year earlier, although down on the 924 reported for March.

Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson said traditionally April sales volume and prices could fall away markedly compared with March because of seasonal factors.

“It demonstrates the housing market has found strength at its present level and with confidence returning, an increasing number of people are prepared to make buy and sell decisions.

“There is a catch up surge going through the market as people follow through on long-held intentions to upgrade, invest or free up equity.”

The biggest challenge facing the Auckland housing market was a scarcity of properties to sell, Mr Thompson said. At this time last year, the agency had nearly 1400 more homes on its books than it did now.

Rental demand continued to be strong, with the average at $399 a week, up 2.6 per cent from the start of the year.

5 May 2009

Source: NZ Herald

The fizz could be returning to Auckland’s property market.

The city’s largest real estate agency group, Barfoot & Thompson, has reported a relatively strong month for house sales and volumes in April and says the strength is another encouraging sign of market recovery.

Barfoot and Thompson reported 809 sales in April at an average price of NZ$502,726. The number of sales over the month were still below those in 2006 and 2007, which recorded 829 and 899, respectively. Barfoots recorded 453 sales in April 2008.

Sales were down from 924 in March, but this was due to the traditional seasonal downturn in April, Barfoots said. The average price over the month was up 2 per cent from March, but still down 3 per cent from April 2008 and 5.6 per cent from 2007.

“Traditionally April sales volume and prices can fall away markedly compared to March,” Managing Director Peter Thompson said.

“It is a seasonal factor, so to get an increase in price in April with only a modest fall in the number of homes sold compared to the previous month is heartening,” Thompson said.

“It demonstrates the housing market has found strength at its present level, and with confidence returning an increasing number of people are prepared to make buy and sell decisions. There is a catch up surge going through the market as people follow through on long held intentions to upgrade, invest in a property or free up equity,” he said.

“There is a widely held belief that the housing market is extremely quiet with prices dropping. That belief is wrong, and April’s average price is in line with the average price achieved for the first quarter of this year.”

3 April 2009

Source: AAP

Barfoot & Thompson reported Auckland house sales at a 20-month high in March, with the agency saying home buyers returned to the market with a “vengeance”.

The agency sold a total of 924 homes last month, up 65.3 per cent on those for February and up 46.2 per cent on those for March 2008.

At the same time, the average price achieved for sales in March was $NZ491,780 ($A397,751), down 4.1 per cent on February’s average price and down 5.8 per cent on the average in March 2008.

“We sold close to 300 homes more in March than in any month in the whole of 2008,” Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson said on Friday.

The size of the recovery was greater than any expectation.

“Buyers may be sensing that market prices are close to the bottom of the cycle and have made the decision to act,” Mr Thompson said.

“At the same time sellers are accepting that a price that is on average only 6 per cent below values being achieved 12 months ago is realistic in the current market, and are ready to accept.

“It means that the market is active, and the housing market is edging further back to normality.”

Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Shamubeel Eaqub said the surprise and huge bounce in sales was consistent with mortgage approvals.

There were uncertainties around the durability of the surge, with job losses yet to fully flow through the economy, he said.

“The level of sales, while still historically low, shows the first encouraging signs of traction from lower interest rates.”

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the level of sales was the highest since November 2007.

Barfoot & Thompson’s Mr Thompson said another indicator of returning confidence was the level of interest shown at auctions.

Attendance numbers were the best in a year last month, and some 65 to 70 per cent of all the homes put to the market sold.

Factors affecting sales activity last month were the traditional March spike, further falls in the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate, bank mortgage rates reaching new lows and knowledge that tax cuts were about to kick in.

At the end of March the agency had 6416 listings, the lowest number in 13 months.

While new listings in March were a healthy 1398, the number of homes sold during the month meant the number of homes listed was the lowest for 14 months.

“Currently, there is an excellent window of opportunity for those keen to sell,” Mr Thompson said.

5 March 2009

Source: NZ Herald

It may not be the dawn itself, but latest house sales numbers from Auckland’s largest real estate company might just show the first glimmer of light in a gloomy property market.

The number of homes sold by the company rose nearly 9 per cent from the month before to 559. Barfoot says it is the first time in four years it has sold more homes in February than the proceeding January.

Average prices rose by 3.5 per cent from February last year, at $512,536. These prices were also up slightly - 2 per cent on January.

Concern about the number of listings in the real estate market may be starting to ease, with 1470 new listings for Barfoot in February. This is up 50 per cent from January, well down when compared to the same month last year.

Company managing director Peter Thompson said the three key indicators - number sold, average price and the number of new listings for February were “positive and encouraging.”

“The average price achieved of $512,536 in February is the highest average price ever achieved in a February, the highest average achieved in the past four months, and the first time in 13 months that the average price has been higher than its comparative month in the previous year.

“Buyers and sellers are cautiously re-entering the market, and there is cause to have some optimism that the housing market is settling.

“The combination of lower interest rates, awareness of the low number of residential building permits being granted, and the general growth of the Auckland region are all contributing factors to this modest turn around,” said Thompson